Olaf Scholz eventually set off the first domino after becoming weary of the battle and coming under pressure from all sides. Germany approved the transfer of 14 Leopard-2 combat tanks to Kiev on Wednesday, January 25. This gave the nations that already possess them permission to do so.
During the process, Poland and Spain quickly expressed their desire to release their cats in the Ukrainian plains. All experts predict a Russian offensive in the spring, but it is still unclear how and when that will happen.
andgt;. Numerous T-72 battle tanks, which date back to the Soviet era, have already been delivered, particularly from Poland and the Czech Republic.
According to Peer de Jong, a former colonel of the navy troops and vice president of the Themiis institute, "the size and the load of the Western models are similar": the T-72 can carry 45 tons, the German Leopard-2 can carry 60 tons, the American Abrams can carry 70 tons, and the British Challenger 2 can carry 70 tons. Of course, the exact details of the route will remain secret.
Nicolas Gosset, a military expert at the Royal Higher Institute of Defense (IRSD) in Belgium, explains the situation in Ukraine. One hour away from Ukraine, a portion of the Leopard tanks are stationed in barracks in Rzeszow.
A more southern route could be utilized by additional contributors like Spain. in either Greece or Croatia.
According to the military historian, using tank carriers to travel through Central and Eastern Europe's roads is not entirely out of the question. The issue is that these armored vehicle carriers are unable to carry more than one or two tanks at once.
Therefore, in Peer de Jong's opinion, their application should be restricted to the front line during the last transfer phase. For these priceless convoys, absolute secrecy is required. "A road column is inevitably slower and more noticeable.
According to researcher Thibault Fouillet at the Foundation for Strategic Research, there hasn't been a significant issue with the rail supply of Caesar or anti-aircraft defense weapons, or the [multiple rocket launchers] HiMars. Only a small number of German howitzers had been marginally obliterated at this point.
In particular, when massive pieces of artillery had to be moved to the southern front, Nicolas Gosset emphasizes that "Russian strikes target intra-Ukrainian transport more.". The expert continues that Russian forces are no longer able to hit moving targets.
Above all, "Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses have been gradually strengthened since the beginning of September, with an increasingly robust ecosystem," particularly given the likelihood that Patriot systems will be deployed. It's difficult for me to think that Leopard convoys could move without a corridor anti-aircraft defense.
The Russian forces will look for this material despite everything because they hope to display such a trophy on their hunting board, according to Nicolas Gosset, a military expert at the Royal Higher Institute for Defense for Franceinfo. In light of the Russian declarations—the Kremlin has already pledged twice to "burn" these tanks—"it will be played with discretion, because there is always a risk," continues Thibault Fouillet.
The Leopard-2s will likely be deployed in the front line, away from urban areas, near Ukrainian logistical hubs. Peer de Jong adduces, "Crossing bridges is ultimately the only problem.
There are many rivers to cross in Ukraine's northern region, which is a vast wetland. To support these loads, you need structures that are sturdy enough.
Additionally, Pierre Razoux insists that "sufficiently wide roads" must exist before the Leopards can be released onto their hunting grounds. Finally, from an operational perspective, upcoming Ukrainian convoys will be able to transmit hints regarding Kiev's strategic goals.
According to Peer de Jong, "it is inevitable that Russian radars and satellites will try to intercept these logistical flows because the concentrations of tanks will determine the future peaks of effort of the Ukrainian army. "Complexity of maintenance and supportIf the transport now appears to be under control, maintenance in operational condition (MCO) raises more unknowns.
Nicolas Gosset emphasizes that "the Leopards are undoubtedly slightly less technologically advanced machines than the French Leclercs or the American Abrams.". However, "they will likely be deployed on the front, and will feed a fierce fire, in an offensive logic.
Spare parts may be required, as well as fuel; the Leopard requires 500 liters of fuel every 100 kilometers off-road. The situation is further complicated by the park's composition.
For instance, the 120mm rifled gun used by the Challengers is different from the smooth 120mm gun used by the Abrams and Leopard. Two separate supply and storage lines for ammunition are involved here.
The spare parts must be stored as close to the Ukrainian border as is practical. Time trial before spring When asked about the logistical difficulty of tank deliveries, NATO hasn't yet responded, according to franceinfo.
But according to judge Thibault Fouillet, the MCO shouldn't cause any issues right away because "the equipment is ready and loaded.". On the other hand, after these tanks are first used in large quantities, structural limitations will become apparent.
The army of Ukraine "could therefore formulate a second round of requests" for combat tanks in the future because it is "fully aware of these difficulties.". In Europe and the US, it will be difficult to quickly acquaint Ukrainian tankers with these new techniques.
Sending trainers to Ukraine would be a strong indication of co-belligerence, which is why European capitals have no interest in doing so. Particularly considering how vulnerable and immobile the tanks would be as a result.
Germany has already stated that it will start these formations on the Leopards in February, following those that will be focused on controlling the Marder light armored vehicles. Will the Russian military launch their anticipated offensive quickly?.
According to Peer de Jong, a former colonel of the navy troops and vice president of the Themiis institute, "the size and the load of the Western models are similar": the T-72 can carry 45 tons, the German Leopard-2 can carry 60 tons, the American Abrams can carry 70 tons, and the British Challenger 2 can carry 70 tons.
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